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| Only one of these things is not like the others. (globalnews.ca) |
After the Alberta election next Tuesday, the
scenario as I see it, like it or not, is this: Jim Prentice will still be
premier. He will even control the majority of seats in the legislature (and
make no mistake, HE will control those seats.) It won’t be easy, but he will
get his majority.
However, it won’t be because his party gets the
most votes or even the most seats. So how can I be predicting a majority win?
How, when as of this morning every poll in the province puts Jim Prentice’s
dusty old entitled white man’s party at third almost province-wide, how do I
see him nabbing 44 seats in the legislature? (Some poll links herein: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/04/30/alberta-ndp-rachel-notley_n_7181594.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-alberta&ir=Canada+Alberta)
I see this because of the three parties
currying popular favour in this province right now, one of them is the Wildrose
party, and a vote for the Wildrose is just a vote for the PCs. Prentice’s
majority will be via a coalition.
When the dust settles, three parties will hold
the majority of the seats in Edmonton: the Progressive Conservatives, the
Wildrose, and the Alberta New Democrats. Let’s say the wonderful happens and
the PCs come in third (I doubt it), that means either the NDP or the Wildrose
form the government. No one expects either to do this with a majority, so we
could end up with a minority government, with the left NDP either leading or
balancing the extreme right Wildrose. A minority government would be the best
thing for us after forty-three years of PC entitlement and arrogance. It would
be bliss.
For about five seconds.
Then Jim Prentice would call up Brian Jean.
No matter where this falls out, no matter where
Prentice’s PCs find themselves, no matter where the other two parties end up—first,
second, or third—unless the NDP pulls off a majority
win (and no matter how generous the poll, nobody on any wing believes this will
happen), Prentice will have his majority. He just has to reach out and mutter
the word “coalition.”
Can you hear the cries from High River? The
despair from Brooks? The Wildrose support was betrayed once by those dastardly
floor-crossers. How could they do this? How could they turn on their support
base again? Coalition?! Treachery!
Actually, it wouldn’t be a coalition. A
coalition is two ideologically-opposed political parties finding some middle
ground for the sake of governing. This would be a conservative government,
because these parties are the same. Anyone who is voting Wildrose and calling
it a change is switching from Pepsi to Coke for the sake of their health.
This morning there were euphoric polls saying
that the NDP has 44% of the decided vote. Unbelievable. And yet, more than 50%
believe the PCs will win. And win a majority. How does this all add up?
Prentice is right, math is hard.
In 2012, the Redford PCs defied the polls and
formed a majority because traditionally centre and left voters kept her party
in power for fear of the Wildrose, who at the time looked much more extreme
than Redford’s PCs. Under Prentice and Jean, the two parties are identical.
Strategic voting like this has taken a lot of criticism this election, but for
many Albertans this was one of the few times they felt like their vote counted for
something in this province, a place where many I know will vote PC on Tuesday
with no better explanation than because they always have. Also, most of the
critics of strategic voting appear to be the partisan supporters of parties,
the sort of supporters who never concern themselves with policies, just with
winning and losing.
Strategic voting could blow up in the face of
anyone hoping for diversity or a functional minority government in this
province. Prentice is a student of the Harper style of fear-mongering, smear-campaigning, and the knives are out for the NDP. Like Redford drew in the left to
battle the extreme right, Prentice can draw in the Wild(-eyed)rose supporters
by making concepts like fair taxation and funded education seem straight out of
1965 Moscow. This is not a time for logic and facts. This is an election!
If Albertans want to see their votes count, if
they want to actually vote for someone who has the interests of Albertans in
mind, rather than their own power and the support of their boardroom buddies,
then the Wildrose is not where their vote should go when opposing the PCs. Both
parties oppose taxes, oppose any fair taxation system, because they both abide
by the medieval doctrine that taxes are bad. The Wildrose are suggesting they
can pay for services by cutting taxes (I know, math is hard), and the PCs can’t
anger their seven-figure puppeteers by changing the corporate tax rates, nor
can they introduce a PST because this would be a contentious issue, and the PCs
try to avoid contentious issues because they are more interested in power than
in governing.
It’s extremely important for Albertans to
consider who they vote for next Tuesday. The Prentice government intends to
make disastrous cuts to education, health care, and other essential services in
order to balance a budget for balance’s sake, all the while telling Albertans it’s
our own fault, and refusing to tax companies that are exploiting our public
natural resources for private wealth. A vote for the Wildrose is a vote for the
PCs, since if both fail to form a majority, a coalition is extremely likely, wasting
the votes of anyone who believes a vote for the Wildrose is a vote for change.
Real change in this province means ensuring essential services for all Albertans, to a standard of quality
all Albertans have come to expect; it means using Albertans’ taxes for Albertans rather than to create a
black ledger for its own sake; it means securing our kids’ economic and
environmental future by acting on behalf of tomorrow today, rather than for
today at tomorrow’s expense. Real change means voting for change, not choosing
an identical alternative.
You’ve seen my projection above. On Tuesday,
prove me wrong.
